- U.S. CPI inflation came in at an annual 6.2% in October, its steepest climb for more than 30 years.
- The persistent high inflation and continued pressures such as supply chain bottlenecks have led many economists to question the Federal Reserve's long-held view that the spike will be "transitory."
A breakdown of the latest U.S. data indicates that inflation is confined to certain sectors and will not pose a threat to the recovery, according to Carl Weinberg, chief economist at High Frequency Economics.
U.S. CPI inflation came in at an annual 6.2% in October, its steepest climb for more than 30 years.
He suggested that the market needs to keep productivity gains in mind when looking at wage increases, which are "tolerable with steady, stable prices as long as they are offset by productivity gains."
Citing High Frequency Economics' aggregation of data across the component sectors within the CPI reading, Weinberg estimated that around one third are falling while half are growing at less than 2%, which he argued "is not inflation."
"The rise of selected categories, scattered categories of products within CPIs are making those averages of the basket price move higher, but that doesn't mean that all prices are moving higher along with all wages," Weinberg said.
"Inflation is a process of spiraling wages and prices, it is not a one-time event, an off-time shock to prices coming from an understandable supply shock."
Ignore 'hysterical people'
Weinberg cited Milton Friedman to make the case that Fed intervention based on these individual pockets of spiking inflation would likely do "more harm than good." He also highlighted comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell and Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, both of whom have suggested that tightening policy in response to inflation resulting from temporary supply shocks would be counterproductive.
"Let's not be influenced by hysterical people like Larry Summers, who are telling us that inflation is taking off. Let's listen to what the people who actually are making policy are telling us," Weinberg said.
Summers was contacted for comment by CNBC. The former U.S. Treasury secretary has in recent weeks called on the Fed and the Biden administration to tackle rising inflation, and argued that the "transitory" label had run its course.
Despite having long advocated for more expansionary fiscal and monetary policy, Summers, now president emeritus of Harvard University, said in a Washington Post op-ed earlier this week that he had changed his view in the face of the evidence. He also challenged the notion that inflation was confined to just a few sectors.
"In October, prices for commodity goods outside of food and energy rose at more than a 12 percent annual rate," Summers said.
"Various Federal Reserve system indexes that exclude sectors with extreme price movements are now at record highs."