NEWS
U.S. consumer confidence hits seven-month low; goods trade deficit widens
  • U.S. consumer confidence fell to a seven-month low in September as a relentless rise in Covid-19 cases deepened concerns about the economy's near-term prospects.
  • The Conference Board said its consumer confidence index dropped to a reading of 109.3 this month from 115.2 in August, the third straight monthly decline.

U.S. consumer confidence fell to a seven-month low in September as a relentless rise in COVID-19 cases deepened concerns about the economy's near-term prospects, fitting in with expectations for a slowdown in growth in the third quarter.

The survey from the Conference Board on Tuesday showed consumers less interested in buying a home and big-ticket items such as motor vehicles and major household appliances over the next six months. Consumers were also not as upbeat in their views of the labor market as in the prior month.

Fewer households intended to buy long-lasting manufactured goods such as motor vehicles and household appliances like washing machines and clothes dryers this month. That supports expectations for a sharp slowdown in consumer spending this quarter, which will ultimately restrain economic growth.

Gross domestic product growth estimates for the third quarter are mostly below a 5% annualized rate. The economy grew at a 6.6% pace in the second quarter.

Expectations for slower GDP growth were reinforced by a separate report from the Commerce Department on Tuesday showing the goods trade deficit rose 0.9% to $87.6 billion in August as businesses imported more products to replenish inventories. Trade has subtracted from GDP growth for four straight quarters.

Imports of goods climbed 0.8% to $236.6 billion, lifted by consumer goods and industrial supplies. But imports of food, capital goods and motor vehicles fell. Motor vehicle imports were likely weighed down by a global shortage of semiconductors, which is impacting production.

Rising imports offset a 0.7% gain in goods exports to $149.0 billion, supported by industrial supplies and consumer goods. But the nation reported a decline in exports of capital goods, motor vehicles and food products. Exports are increasing as global economies continue to recover from the pandemic.

Some of the increase in imports ended up in warehouses at wholesalers and retailers. Wholesale inventories accelerated 1.2% last month after gaining 0.6% in July. Stocks at retailers edged up 0.1% after increasing 0.4% in July. Retail inventories were held back by a 1.5% tumble in stocks of motor vehicles. The drop, which followed a 0.2% gain in July, reflected shortages related to the scarcity of microchips.

Retail inventories excluding autos, which go into the calculation of GDP, rose 0.6% after advancing 0.5% in the prior month. Business inventories were sharply drawn down in the first half of the year. Last month's increase should soften the hit to GDP growth from the widening goods trade deficit.

News on the housing market was discouraging, with the Conference Board survey showing less enthusiasm among consumers for home purchases over the next six months amid higher house prices, which are pushing homeownership out of the reach of many.

A third report on Tuesday showed the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller national home price index surged a record 19.7% in July from a year ago after accelerating 18.7% in June.

Sustained house price inflation was corroborated by a fourth report from the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) showing house prices soared a record 19.2% in the 12 months through July. That followed an 18.9% jump in June.

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